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It's a concept that's pervaded popular culture almost since the very beginning of the technological revolution. 2001: A Space Odyssey, Terminator, The Matrix, Battlestar Galactica, I-Robot; all well-known and loved works of science fiction, all with a similar underlying theme: Eventually computers will outsmart us, and when they do, humanity is doomed. But how far is this concept from reality?
In 1999, a book was published called The Age of Spiritual Machines, by inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil.[1] In this book, Kurzweil argues that, within a couple of decades, computer technology will have evolved to the point that a $1,000 personal computer will have as much raw power as the human brain, and by 2099, machines will be virtually indistinct from humans and will have attained equal legal status.
But will computers ever be truly conscious? We know there is no unique quality which separates human self-awareness from that of the animal world. Studies, such as a recent one with elephants,[2] have shown that some mammals possess the same level of self-consciousness as humans. They recognize themselves in mirrors. They understand, when seeing their own reflection, that what they're seeing is them, and not another animal.
But can computers ever reach the same level of "intelligence" as a biological brain? There appears to be little in the way of technological limitation. Moore's Law[3] states that the number of transistors which can be placed on an integrated circuit doubles roughly every two years, meaning that every two years, computers become roughly twice as powerful. If we follow the trend of Random Access Memory (RAM) capacity from 1980 to today, we can extrapolate that the feasible storage capacity of a stick of RAM will, by 2029, be roughly equivalent to that of the human brain.
However, Moore's Law does have its problems. Professor of Theoretical Physics at the City University of New York, futurist, and best-selling author Michio Kaku has speculated that within fifteen to twenty years, Moore's Law will collapse due to the limitations of silicon.[4] However, there is no reason to believe that some other type of computer will not take the place of our current silicon-based machines and allow technological evolution to continue, although perhaps not at the same pace. Even as we speak, "quantum computers" are being experimented with which can make computations on the surface of a handful of atoms.[5]
But what does "consciousness" really mean in terms of a human brain? Science fiction, and even notable scientists and futurists such as Ray Kurzweil and Michio Kaku, have predicted that if the raw processing power of a computer ever matches or exceeds that of the human brain, that these machines will become "self-aware," develop their own agenda of self-preservation and may become motivated to achieve that end through any means necessary, including by annihilating or enslaving the human species. But even with a rudimentary understanding of the evolution and biology of the human brain, I see a major problem with this.
Self-preservation, the desire to continue living, is the basest, most fundamental of all instincts, possessed by every living creature from humans to cockroaches. We identify and evade danger, we take proactive action to sustain ourselves, we sense pain as a threat to the integrity of our body and avoid it to prevent doing damage to ourselves. Even cockroaches panic and flee to the nearest source of shelter when a light is turned on. These instincts exist purely by evolutionary forces. An organism can't pass its genes on to future generations if it has no desire to stay alive long enough to reproduce. But what reason would a computer have to possess this same desire for self-preservation? As computers are artificially created by humans and not by natural evolutionary forces, there is no reason to believe they will ever spontaneously develop some sense of wanting to remain alive, independent of a human programming this desire into their code. When you click the "Shut Down" button in Windows, your computer doesn't freak out and take action to remain running against your will, it obediently begins its shut-down procedures and then turns itself off. Why? Because that's what it's programmed to do.
And that's the fundamental difference I see between man and machine. We are creations of nature, and as such our most fundamental desires and motivations are fueled by the evolutionary forces which assembled our brains over the course of millions of years. Computers, while they may become extremely powerful and even what one might call "intelligent," are fundamentally tools created by humans to serve some purpose to their masters. As such, their only motivations and desires – if one wishes to so describe their internal functions – are those which are imparted to them by their human creators. If decades down the road we want to build a computer which delights in the act of destroying itself, there is no ineffable or ethereal quality of consciousness which dictates that even a very advanced, intelligent and self-aware computer would have the desire to rebel against its own programming. So how close are we to Judgment Day? Insofar as this author can speculate, not very.
References:
[1] http://www.amazon.com/Age-Spiritual-Machines-Computers-Intelligence/dp/0140282025
[2] http://www.livescience.com/animals/061030_elephant_mirror.html
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law
[4] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PW8rgKLPHMg
[5] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing
